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June 5, 2006

The Question of War with Iran

With the Bush Administration's recent offer to negotiate directly with Iran, the question of military force is once again in the news. And once again some people do not seem to understand the issues at stake.

From today's Washington Times

Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called the U.S. diplomatic offer to Iran "a very positive step."

Asked what would happen if Iran rejects the offer, Mr. Biden, said, "I think at a minimum, it will keep the world united and move toward a Security Council resolution that maybe holds everybody together and adds additional sanctions from other countries. That may have an impact."

Mr. Biden said he thinks war with Iran would be a mistake. "The one way to unite the 71 million Iranians with a government they do not like would be to attack them."

What is the problem here?

As I wrote in The Big Question with Regard to Iran, " Is it acceptable for us to allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons?" It's not an idle question, because as Senator Biden indicates, "all hell is going to break lose in the world, and especially in the Middle East, if we have to bomb Iran".

The answer to the question depends on what you think the Iranian regime will do when or if they acquire nuclear weapons. If, like me, you think they'll use them to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, then the answer to the question is an emphatic "no".

No serious person is saying that we should attack Iran now. By the same token, no serious person should say that we should take the military option off the table.

Senator Biden is generally a serious person on foreign affairs, and is a Democrat worth listening to. His press release on our overture to Iran is worh reading. He's no wild-eyed peacenik, and does not have a habit of making completely irresponsible statements such as those we hear regularly from the likes of Rep John Murtha.

So what is Senator Biden saying? We do not have his full remarks, so it's hard to say. If he is saying that we should not ever attack Iran because it would "unite the 71 million Iranians with a government they do not like", then my question to him would be:

"If Iran secretly acquires nuclear weapons, and uses them to attack Israel, will you still be happy that we hadn't attacked Iran and united those 71 million people?"

Because that's what it comes down to. There are a hundred reasons why we shouldn't attack Iran now. But if we cannot stop Iran diplomatically, there will come a point where we cannot be sure if Iran does or does not have nuclear weapons. In other words, we know they do not have them today, but as time goes on our level of certainty will decrease. There will come a point, like that with North Korea, where we simply will not be sure.

Further, we should remember that the history of our predictions as to when a nation is on the brink of acquiring nuclear weapons is not a good one. We were taken by surprise when the Soviet Union tested their first weapon in 1949, China in 1965, India in 1976, and probably Pakistan in 1998.

To simply say "we should not attack Iran" is too vague to be useful. To take the military option off the table entirely would be to give Iran the green light to develop nuclear weapons. We should not use it now, but should hold it in reserve for that time when our level of uncertainty rises to an unacceptable level. Because all of the objections to attacking Iran will be nothing in the face of 7 million dead Israelies.

Posted by Tom at June 5, 2006 7:34 AM

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