The Redhunter

Q From your presentation, it would seem that if al Qaeda in Iraq were defeated, then it seems like most of the problems would go away. The sectarian strife would dissipate. You know, the Shi'ite militias would not be an issue. The Sunni insurgency would not be an issue. Are you saying, that it's al Qaeda and they're causing this and these other -- they're just facilitating these other problems?

GEN. BERGNER: Really what we're saying is that they are the principal threat within a complex security environment that involves al Qaeda. It involves other extremist organizations. It involves extremist militants and different militia organizations. They are clearly one of the principal -- they are clearly the main accelerant in sectarian violence and the greatest source of these spectacular attacks that are killing innocent Iraqis in such large numbers.

Q Despite the fact that their numbers are so small?

GEN. BERGNER: That's right. It's interesting, because there are -- if you looked at the number of foreign fighters that I have mentioned come into Iraq, their numbers are relatively small, but their effect is very, very devastating to the Iraqi people, because they're employed frequently as these suicide bombers. And so this isn't a monolithic security problem, but it is one where it is quite clear that al Qaeda is the principal threat and the principal destabilizing factor that is targeting the government of Iraq and their security forces.

Watch or read the whole thing, because earlier General Bergner addresses another question about al-Qaeda in which Jamie Tarabay of NPR asked "al Qaeda the main near-term threat, how about -- how do you classify, you know, the Shi'a militia groups, the Sunni insurgent groups? "

Bergner danced a bit around the issue of the militias, only saying that it was a "complex security environment", but in the end said that AQI (al-Qaeda in Iraq) "the principal near-term threat in Iraq" because they committed the "largest number of suicide attacks and spectacular attacks and (were)deliberately fueling sectarian violence" and that they had as as their "main purpose destabilizing the government of Iraq and implementing an Islamic state."

This issue of al-Qaeda is important not just because of what is going on in Iraq, but because of the larger War on Jihadism. We learned this week that U.S. intelligence sources have confirmed that the organization has rebuilt and is at least as strong if not stronger today than it was on September 11.

I can't find the actual report on the Internet but it's titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West." According to the Breitbart story

John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the concerns about al-Qaida's resurgence during testimony and conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday.

"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that activity rising."

On the other hand, the invaluable Michael Yon reports from Iraq that al-Qaida is on the run. He says that they are losing in both the Anbar and Diyala provinces.

So what of it?

On the one hand I hate refighting the past. What's happened has happened. We are where we are in Iraq. If it pleases people to say that Iraq is a distraction from fighting al-Qaeda suit yeah whatever. True, al-Qaeda was not in Iraq prior to the commencement of OIF like they are today. However, I think that people who say that there was no connection between the Saddam Hussein regime and al-Qeada are wrong, and you can check out this blog for starters. But again, refighting the past is largely a waste of time.

The bottom line to Iraq is that al-Qaeda is there, and so if you are truely interested in fighting them you'll want to continue the fight in Iraq. If we can defeat them there we become the "strong horse". If we lose then we become the "weak horse."

No one in the Middle East or elsewhere will want to be allied with the weak horse. Those who talk about "redeployment" are deluding themselves. Leaving Iraq prematurely will be touted as a defeat by al-Qaeda and all jihadists and they will be right. Governments around the world will...make their own accomodations with the jihadists. They'll relearn an old lesson, that it's dangerous to be a friend of the U.S., but often profitable to be it's enemy (Speaker Pelosi's trip to Damascus, for example).

Obviously it isn't good if it's true that al-Qaeda is stronger. It's not clear from the report, though, that not having gone into Iraq would have changed anything. The report says that al-Qaeda has set up base in Pakistan.

P A K I S T A N.

A sovereign country.

Armed with nuclear weapons.

Most of the al-Qaeda are in the Warziristan province of Pakistan, a virtual no-mans land that the government has never really controlled. Last September we learned that the government signed something that has become known as the Warziristan Accords, which effectively ceded the province to local tribesmen, who harbor the al-Qaeda.

So... on the one hand we might attack Warziristan, but how? It's not exactly accessable. Air power will destroy known al-Qaeda camps, but will hardly defeat the organization. This will take ground troops, and the logistical barriers to getting any number of troops in there are formidable, even if we had them to send.

And we're not going to get any international support if we do. If you want to amuse youself by blaming this on President Bush and the invasion of Iraq go ahead and entertain yourself, but I don't think any serious person would conclude that any world body would "authorize" a U.S. attack on Pakistan.

Then there's the fact that any incursion into Pakistan would give the Islamists an excuse to try and seize power. Musharraf might be overthrown by them or opponents within the military, and heaven knows who might come into power. At any rate, it would seriously destabilize the country with quite unpredicable results. Did I mention that they have nuclear weapons?

I'm not saying the situation is insoluable. I am saying it defines an easy solution. Anyone with serious ideas on how to deal with al-Qaeda in Waziristan is invited to leave them in comments.