The Redhunter

GEN. ODIERNO: ...I do want to first give you an update on where I see us at. I'll go back a little bit in history, then talk a little bit about what we will do in the future, and then I'll open it up for questions. But first I would like to present -- just give you a quick operational update. It has been nearly a year since III Corps arrived in theater and took command of Multinational Corps-Iraq. When we arrived last year, Iraq was a nation immersed in a cycle of terror and sectarian killings. As the violence continued to build, a shift in strategy was deemed necessary to protect the Iraqi people from extremist influences threatening to tear apart at the seams. ...

Due to Phantom Thunder and Phantom Strike, we have been able to eliminate key safe havens, liberate portions of the population and hamper the enemy's ability to conduct coordinated attacks. We have experienced a consistent and steady trend of increased security over the last four months, and I believe continued aggressive operations by both Iraqi and coalition forces are the most effective way to extend our gains and continue to protect the citizens of Iraq.

Slide, please. As depicted on this slide, over the past four months, attacks and security incidents have continued to decline. This trend represents the longest continuous decline in attacks on record and illustrates how our operations have improved security since the surge was emplaced. Of note, this four-month decline includes Ramadan, a time during the previous three years when enemy activity has traditionally spiked.

If I was smarter I could figure out how to post each slide here as an image, but as it is you can Download his slide show here.

If you view the slide show it becomes pretty obvious that the situation started to get out of control after the bombing of the Samarra Mosque in February of 2006, but took a definate turn for the better once the "surge" got underway earlier this year.

For several minutes Gen Odierno discusses each slide, though they pretty much speak for themselves. He then gets to the all important question of why has the situation improved?

As we assess the security gains made over the past four months, I attribute the progress to three prominent dynamics. First, the surge allowed us to eliminate extremist safe havens and sanctuaries, just as importantly to maintain our gains. Second, the ongoing quantitative and qualitative improvement of the Iraqi security forces are translating to ever-increasing tactical successes. Lastly, there's a clear rejection of al Qaeda and other extremists by large segments of the population, this coupled with the bottom-up awakening movement by both Sunni and Shi'a who want a chance to reconcile with the government of Iraq.

This matches with what I've been posting from other sources. Select "Iraq" at right under "Categories".

Then it was on to the questions. Here are few of the more interesting exchanges

Q Hi, general. This is Courtney Kube from NBC News. You mentioned among the causes of the progress that you're seeing is the surge, that it's allowed you to maintain the gains. Are you all concerned that as it starts to draw down next month, you'll lose some of those gains and perhaps cause you not to be able to move into tactical overwatch position in '08?

GEN. ODIERNO: Well, first off, as we went through the -- this, my recommendation to General Petraeus was in fact to reduce from 20 to 15 brigades over the next several months, and I did that because I believe that we will be able to continue to move forward with the progress.

Based on the progress we have made against the enemy, based on the continued improvement of the Iraqi security forces, and continued on the support of the population we are now receiving, I feel that we will be able to continue to hold on to the gains that we have. Again the drawdown will be deliberate and slow over the next several months, which allows us to continue to conduct operations as we move forward. And I feel confident that we'll be able to maintain the gains that we've sustained so far.

...

Q General, it's Al Pessin from Voice of America. What about the political side? Have the Iraqi politicians done enough to take advantage of the time and space that the surge provided so that again as the surge draws down, you maintain that aspect of the stability?

GEN. ODIERNO: Yeah, what we've seen is, I think, they still need to do more. They still obviously have some legislation they have to pass. But frankly to me, the most important thing is to really become involved in providing the basic services to the Iraqi people which, in my mind, would make a huge difference. ...But to answer your question, I think there's still much more work they have to do. We are working with them, for them to move forward with this. Again they are planning and they are saying the right things, and that's good. We now need to see a bit of action on the ground.
...

Q General, Peter Spiegel from the Los Angeles Times... I wonder if you can just talk specifically about why you think the Shi'a violence has declined.

GEN. ODIERNO: Yeah, first, I would just say that there's several reasons there has been some decline. I think it's across several different lines, and you mentioned some of them.

One is, first, in the beginning of the year, with the government of Iraq, we went after significantly the leaders of the special groups, criminals, that were really behind much of the violence, and we were able to take many of these leaders off the streets....

There's been a cease-fire announced by Sadr. We applaud that.
...

Q Could I just ask -- that last point about the ethnic cleansing, you know, that there's some argument that this has become Bosnia and -- that the violence is going down because finally the Serbs and the Muslims are different places. Do any of your data show that Sunni and Shi'a are now in their own little enclaves and, therefore, not killing each other?

GEN. ODIERNO: Yes. No, I mean there's been shifts. Listen, there's been shifts in the population in Baghdad. That happened, and I would argue that's happened over the last couple years. But I would tell you I've not seen any significant shifts that have changed it from January, when we got here, to now. There might have been some minor shifts, but very little.

What we are seeing, though, is we are starting to see some cooperation between these groups.... So those are the kind of signs we're seeing that are not quite in line with what you've suggested.
...

Q General Odierno, can I just clarify that? In the year 2008, to what extent will U.S. forces basically be in a different mission? In other words, how much simply tactical overwatch, how much just going after al Qaeda and other insurgent groups?

And can you really separate the two missions?

GEN. ODIERNO: Well, first, it's about -- I can. The first part is about local security. You know, first you've got to provide -- protect the population and provide security to the local people. So you have a local security issue, which is done by the police and in some cases now, until the police become strong enough, done by the army. And then there is a intelligence-driven targeting operation that goes against extreme elements that would be done in coordination with Iraqi security forces. So I do see that you can separate those, but they will be linked in some cases, but for the most part you can separate those.

The bottom line is I think we will -- you will see us begin to move to tactical overwatch, but we are again in some places already, as I just said, like in Mosul; we are in Basra; we are with Karbala; we are in Najaf; we are in Diwaniyah; we are -- I think you'll see us start to move to tactical overwatch in Anbar province over the next several months. I think we'll move to tactical overwatch in some neighborhoods in Baghdad over the next several months, and that will progress through 2008, but it's conditions-based, it's not time-based.
...

Q General, it's Andrew Gray from Reuters here. Can you say how much further you think you can drive down the violence through military operations or how much at this stage is it now due -- is it now going to be done through political development, the basic services, you've talked about? How much further can combat operations really play a role at this point?

GEN. ODIERNO: Yeah, I think you -- that's a great point, by the way. And I agree with your statement. The issue is, I think, that there are some people here who will not reconcile. And those are the ones we'll have to continue to conduct military operations against. But if we can provide services on a consistent basis, that will bring about much more reduction in violence than military operations -- and so I agree with that -- as well as continued movement towards reconciliation. So I think those are the keys. I think those could be the tipping point if we can get those things moving.
...

Q (Peter Spiegel with the LA Times asking about Blackwater/private security firms and civilian casualties) May I follow up? Obviously, we're not -- there is one incident that is out there, but as we see it in Washington sometimes, an incident like that happens, there's a whole lot of angry Iraqis. And maybe that's just because of what we see on television. I guess if I can ask from you, how significant is an incident like that -- impact your mission? Is it a minor annoyance, or is what we're getting on television accurate and that it's a big deal and a lot of Iraqis are getting very angry?

GEN. ODIERNO: Well, yeah, we have not -- let me put it this way. I think the Iraqis are -- first off, their perception of innocent civilians being killed, they have anger with that. What I would tell you, though, is we have not seen it taken out on coalition forces. We continue to cooperate across the board in that very place where that happened. We are coordinating -- we continue to coordinate, like we were before, all through Iraq.

But, you know, it is something that we have to understand and consider when we conduct operations because it has raised the attention on civilian casualties, and so it's important. It's important to Iraqis. We just need to understand that. And we have, and we continue to work with them.

So I think the relationship, thankfully, has not been affected, and I think it's because of the strong ties that have been built over the last several months. But we can't continue to have things like that happen or it will ultimately have an impact on our relations with the Iraqi people.

After the questions Gen Odierno wrapped it up. Here are part of his final remarks

Ladies and gentlemen, I'm here to tell you Iraq is in good hands. With soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines like these three young officers leading the way forward, there's no doubt that we'll (sic) do everything in their power to accomplish any mission they are handed. What they have accomplished to this point was unimaginable just a year ago. These incredible men and women are making it happen day and night, in extreme conditions, and I'm absolutely privileged to have the pleasure of serving in their ranks. Thank you for allowing me to be with you today. I appreciate the time, and may God bless all of you, and may God bless America. Thank you very much.

Odierno certainly inspires confidence. What he says is what I've been reading in other sources and often posting here. Again, to get the full context of the briefing, download and view the slides.

As I've said in the past I think it a good idea to get information from Iraq from a variety of legitimate sources. These press briefings, as with many of the shows on The Pentagon Channel, are useful primary sources. Unlike many conservatives, I visit the CNN website (I don't watch TV at all). Unlike most liberals, I also visit Fox News. I subscribe to The Washington Times, and view The Washington Post online. Often The New York Times has useful stories. Independent journalists like Michael Yon, Jeffrey Emanuel and Michael Totten are invaluable. National Review is often my starting point, and The Weekly Standard is always worth a visit.

They all move towards understanding the situation in Iraq. And my conclusion is that we are moving in the right direction.