The Redhunter

Iran maintains it was given the papers without asking for them during its black market purchases of nuclear equipment decades ago that now serve as the backbone of its program to enrich uranium -- a process that can generate both power or create the fissile core of nuclear warheads. Iran's refusal to suspend enrichment has been the main trigger for both existing U.N. sanctions and the threat of new ones.

I guess the documents were just thrown in as a bonus. Kind of like when you buy a new cell phone they throw in a car charger.

Just to be sure we're all on the same page regarding the documents, the AP story goes on to explain that

Both the IAEA and other experts have categorized the instructions outlined in the blueprints as having no value outside of a nuclear weapons program.

Anyone still want to maintain that Iran isn't seeking nukes?

Paul Mirengoff of Powerline attended a breakfast hosted by The American Spectator two days ago. Former Ambassador to the UN John Bolton was the featured speaker. Here's what he had to say about Iran

Our policy has been, let the Europeans handle it. Europe's policy has been "speak softly and carry a big carrrot." This dynamic has caused us to waste four years. Finally, we have Sarkozy and perhaps Merkel on board, and we've been able to implement some decent sanctions. But they are too little too late. The only question now is when (not whether) Iran will get nukes. And given the price of oil, the answer is probably sooner rather than later. Our options, then, are regime change and the use of military force. There's some chance of regime change because the regime is fragile. Failing that, as a last resort the U.S. or Israel should strike Iran's nuclear facilities. However, this is a risky strategy because Iran may have facilites we don't know about. In that case, you get the adverse consequences of the stirke without the benefit. Bolton doubts that Iran would withhold oil because the revenue is too important to the regime. Iran would likely retaliate by supporting terrorism, but Iran's support of terrorism is already substantial.

I'd say he has it just about right.

Unfortunately, the Bush Administration seems determined to forge ahead with our current strategy of endless negotiations and sanctions that will not deter the mullahs. We should be pursuing regime change but are not. What we're going to end up with is a situation where the choice will be between letting Iran have the bomb and hoping for the best and a military strike, which as Bolton says is risky.

Part of me thinks that the President will assess the 2008 race late next year and if it looks like the Democrat will win, will order strikes because he (rightly) won't trust his successor to do it. On the other hand, this ridiculous business of seeking an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord makes he think he's looking at his legacy and wants to go out a peacemaker.

If Israel had a strong leader I'd say they would present Bush with an ultimatum; you strike or we will. Bush would have to hit Iran because 1) Israel couldn't get the job done (they don't have big bombers that can carry the deep penetrator bombs) and 2) an Israeli strike would inflame the region even more than a U.S. one would. But unless Israel gets new leadership (Bibi where are you?) I'm not sure I even see this happening.

Either way, Bolton is right in that the situation will come to a head sometime in the next few years. It might not be September 1939 yet, but it's just about 1938.