The Redhunter

There's more, but eventually Obama gets to what his supporters want to hear about:

We can safely redeploy our combat brigades at a pace that would remove them in 16 months. That would be the summer of 2010 -- two years from now, and more than seven years after the war began. After this redeployment, a residual force in Iraq would perform limited missions: going after any remnants of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, protecting American service members and, so long as the Iraqis make political progress, training Iraqi security forces. That would not be a precipitous withdrawal.

Unfortunately for Obama, the people who would know about "redeployment" don't think he knows what he's talking about

Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Hammond is commander of Multi-National Division Baghdad, which is headquartered by his 4th Infantry Division. Lt. Gen. Lloyd Austin is commander of Multi-National Corps - Iraq (Austin is #2 in Iraq. The divisional commanders report to him). (For more on each commander, here is Hammond's last press briefing (June 3), and here is Austin's last press briefing (June 23)).

Here's the same ABC news report in written form. Maj. Gen. Hammond:

"Instead of any time-based approach to any decision for withdrawal, it's got to be conditions-based, with the starting point being an intelligence analysis of what might be here today, and what might lie ahead in the future. I still think we still have work that remains to be done before I can really answer that question," Hammond said when asked how he would feel about an order to start drawing down two combat brigades a month.

Asked if he considered it dangerous to pull out if the withdrawal is not based on "conditions," Hammond said, "It's very dangerous. I'll speak for the coalition forces, men and women of character and moral courage; we have a mission, and it's not until the mission is done that I can look my leader in the eye and say, 'Sir, Ma'am, mission accomplished,' and I think it is dangerous to leave anything a little early."

But it's not just the fact that leaving on a timetable is militarily stupid. It's not as if we can just neatly pack our bags and catch the next flight out. We've got all sorts of, you know, things that have to be brought out. More from the ABC News report

Success on the battlefield is not the only complication with Obama's plan.

Physically removing the combat brigades within that kind of time frame would be difficult, as well.

The military has been redeploying troops for years, and Maj. Gen. Charles Anderson, who would help with the withdrawal, told us as we toured Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, "We have the capacity to do a minimum of two-and-a-half brigade combat teams a month -- can we expand that capacity? Sure. Can we accelerate? It depends. It depends on the amount of equipment that we bring back. And it's going to depend on how fast we bring them out...several commanders who looked at the Obama plan told ABC News, on background, that there was "no way" it could work logistically.

One wonders, can Obama not fine anyone competent to advise him on military matters?

Senator John McCain has a devastating take down of Obama's Op-Ed on his campaign website. Read the whole thing, but here are some of the highlights:

MYTH: Barack Obama Writes That He Opposed The Surge Because Of The Military Strain, Afghanistan Situation And The War's Monetary Cost. "But the same factors that led me to oppose the surge still hold true. The strain on our military has grown, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated and we've spent nearly $200 billion more in Iraq than we had budgeted. Iraq's leaders have failed to invest tens of billions of dollars in oil revenues in rebuilding their own country, and they have not reached the political accommodation that was the stated purpose of the surge." (Barack Obama, Op-Ed, "My Plan For Iraq," The New York Times, 7/14/08)

FACT: Barack Obama Said He Opposed The Surge In Iraq Because It Would Not Work Or Reduce Violence.

* October 2006: Barack Obama Says We Cannot "Through Putting In More Troops Or Maintaining The Presence That We Have, Expect That Somehow The Situation Is Going To Improve." Obama: "Given the deteriorating situation, it is clear at this point that we cannot, through putting in more troops or maintaining the presence that we have, expect that somehow the situation is going to improve, and we have to do something significant to break the pattern that we've been in right now." (NBC's "Meet The Press," 10/22/06)

* July 2007: Barack Obama Says The Surge Had Not Worked In Iraq. Obama: "My assessment is that the surge has not worked and we will not see a different report eight weeks from now." (NBC's "The Today Show," 7/18/07)

* November 2007: Barack Obama Says The Surge Has Not Worked, And Had Potentially Worsened The Situation In Iraq. Obama: "Finally, in 2006-2007, we started to see that, even after an election, George Bush continued to want to pursue a course that didn't withdraw troops from Iraq but actually doubled them and initiated a search and at that stage I said very clearly, not only have we not seen improvements, but we're actually worsening, potentially, a situation there." (NBC's "Meet The Press," 11/11/07)
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MYTH #3: Barack Obama Claimed Iraq "Never Has Been" The Central Front In The War On Terrorism

MYTH: Barack Obama Writes That "Iraq Is Not The Central Front In The War On Terrorism, And It Never Has Been." (Barack Obama, Op-Ed, "My Plan For Iraq," The New York Times, 7/14/08)

FACT: Iraq Has Been Called "The Most Important And Serious Issue Today" By Al Qaeda And "The Central Front" By Our Commanding General.

* Osama Bin Laden: "The Most Important And Serious Issue Today For The Whole World Is This Third World War ... Raging In [Iraq]." BIN LADEN: "I now address my speech to the whole of the Islamic nation: Listen and understand. The issue is big and the misfortune is momentous. The most important and serious issue today for the whole world is this Third World War, which the Crusader-Zionist coalition began against the Islamic nation. It is raging in the land of the two rivers. The world's millstone and pillar is in Baghdad, the capital of the caliphate." (Text Of Bin Laden's Audio Message To Muslims In Iraq, Posted On Jihadist Websites, 12/28/04)

* General Petraeus: "Iraq is, in fact, the central front of al Qaeda's global campaign and we devote considerable resources to the fight against al Qaeda Iraq." (Gen. David Petraeus, Press Briefing, Arlintong, VA, 4/26/07)

Down the Memory Hole

Perhaps in an attempt to escape scrutiny, the Daily News reports that Obama has purged his campaign website of his criticism of the surge plan:

Barack Obama's campaign scrubbed his presidential Web site over the weekend to remove criticism of the U.S. troop "surge" in Iraq, the Daily News has learned.

The presumed Democratic nominee replaced his Iraq issue Web page, which had described the surge as a "problem" that had barely reduced violence.

Thankfully, NRO's Media Blog provides a link to his original plan.

Via the McCain blog, Update: there's even a website with before and after screen shots

The Politics

Obama has a problem; on the one hand his base is hard left and hard antiwar. They will tolerate nothing less than an immediate withdrawal regardless of circumstances. They don't care what happens in Iraq, or if they do see any breakdown and civil war as something else they can pin on Bush and the evil neocons.

On the other hand he can't win with them alone, and must find some way to appeal to the center, or at least center-left. He's busy changing his positions on a number of issues, Iraq included. What's happening though is that he's tying himself in knots.

Obama is scheduled to go to Iraq very soon, in just a few weeks I think. He will meet with Petreaus, Austin, and probably Hammond and the other divisional commanders. They're all going to tell him the same thing; that his plan is whacked. What will he do then?

McCain has a problem of his own; he must hold onto his base, which wants to win, while appealing to the center, which wants to win but also get out. They want, I think, a sort of "withdrawal with victory." McCain's advantage is that he was right on the surge, and as such can claim that his plan to withdraw troops does so only because we have won or are winning.

"But We'll Fight in Afghanistan! Really!"

From Obama's Op-Ed in the Times

Ending the war is essential to meeting our broader strategic goals, starting in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the Taliban is resurgent and Al Qaeda has a safe haven. Iraq is not the central front in the war on terrorism, and it never has been. As Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently pointed out, we won't have sufficient resources to finish the job in Afghanistan until we reduce our commitment to Iraq.

As president, I would pursue a new strategy, and begin by providing at least two additional combat brigades to support our effort in Afghanistan. We need more troops, more helicopters, better intelligence-gathering and more nonmilitary assistance to accomplish the mission there. I would not hold our military, our resources and our foreign policy hostage to a misguided desire to maintain permanent bases in Iraq.

Again, if we need more resources let's increase defense spending. The idea that we cannot fight two counterinsurgencies at the same time is ludicrous.

But what about the notion that Obama is a hawk on Afghanistan?

John McCain's campaign website throws doubt on the entire notion that Obama even cares about Afghanistan

MYTH #4: Barack Obama Says He Is Concerned About The Situation In Afghanistan

MYTH: Barack Obama Writes That We Must "Pursue A New Strategy" In Afghanistan. "As president, I would pursue a new strategy, and begin by providing at least two additional combat brigades to support our effort in Afghanistan. We need more troops, more helicopters, better intelligence-gathering and more nonmilitary assistance to accomplish the mission there." (Barack Obama, Op-Ed, "My Plan For Iraq," The New York Times, 7/14/08)

FACT: As Chairman Of The Subcommittee On European Affairs, Barack Obama Has Failed To Hold Any Hearings On Afghanistan.
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FACT: Barack Obama Has Never Been To Afghanistan; Skipped The Opportunity To Go In 2006.
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FACT: Barack Obama Voted Against Providing Funding For Operations In Afghanistan.

* Barack Obama Voted Against Providing $94.4 Billion In Critical Funding For The Troops In Iraq And Afghanistan. (H.R. 2206, CQ Vote #181: Passed 80-14: R 42-3; D 37-10; I 1-1, 5/24/07, Obama Voted Nay)

I don't know the details on the funding bill and my guess is there's more to it than the McCain site is revealing, but you get the idea.

I think that if Obama gets his way and we abandon Iraq and "redeploy" troops to Afghanistan, the left will see how difficult that war really is. Afghanistan is larger, harder to get to, has less infrastructure (roads etc needed for moving troops), has a weaker national army, and has even less of a central government than Iraq. Add to this more ethnic groups and the fact that Afghanistan has never really been a centrally-controlled country. As if all this was not enough our enemy has a sanctuary in the Waziristan province of Pakistan, and you've got a real conundrum.

There also seems to be the idea that Afghanistan is "safer" than Iraq, but the truth is that on a per-soldier basis as many of our troops are killed and wounded there as in Iraq.

Further, if Obama thinks that more troops will help in Afghanistan, why did he say they wouldn't help in Iraq? How is Afghanistan different?

How badly will Obama's antiwar base really want to fight for Afghanistan once it is the war story in the news every day?

How long before they declare that the Afghan government isn't "stepping up to the plate" and that unless it meets certain benchmarks we're going to "redeploy?"

I think that (assuming again that Obama gets his way) once the left sees how difficult Afghanistan is they'll give up on it too. The excuse will likely be something along the lines of "the money is needed here at home for a badly needed school lunch program."