The Redhunter

Two things will tell us pretty quickly if Israel didn't achieve it's war aims: One, Hamas is able to gather up it's remaining forces and stage serious attacks on Israeli units inside Gaza. Two, if they are able to restart rocket attacks on Israel to a degree that is more than a few sporadic shots.

It's been reported today that Hamas fired 8 or 20 rockets (depending on the story) rockets and mortar shells in to Israel. No doubt they feel they have to fire a few now to save face. The question is whether in coming weeks and months they keep firing them at the rate at which they were before the war.

Other Long term signs will be how fast Hamas reestablishes itself, if at all. Right now Fatah is taking advantage of the situation by cooperating with the IDF in arresting Hamas elements on the West Bank. My guess is that hopes that Hamas is smashed to the point they disappear are over optimistic. Word is that they still have enough forces to control Gaza. However, they may have lost enough to the point where they conclude that terror rocket attacks on Israel are counterproductive. That in itself will be a victory for Israel.

A good sign is simply that Prime Minister Olmert was able to declare victory. He could not do so after the 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, because everyone knew it wasn't true. As I said in a previous post, during that war we saw a lot of commentary about how Israel wasn't achieving it's aims, and saw it from the beginning of the war to the end. We did not see similar coverage this time. Note that I'm only referring to reliable sources.

Also good is that Israel declared the ceasefire on it's own terms. It did not cave to international pressure and accept some UN brokered settlement, which would have been disastrous. Internationalists and UN types have Israel's worst interests at heart.

More importantly, my perception from browsing various news sources is that Hamas somewhat lost the battle for public opinion in the Muslim world, or at least did not do nearly as well as Hezbollah in it's war with Israel. They were seen by some or many as the instigators, as picking a fight they could not hope to win, and unnecessarily derailing the "peace process" (which I don't buy into but that's an argument for another day.

More to come.

Sunday Evening Update

Although it's all very fine to destroy Hamas, an editorial in the Jerusalem Post throws cold water on the idea that Fatah is much better:

They attribute Hamas's ascendancy and Fatah's decline to the current fighting, or to settlements, or to the "occupation" pushing ordinary Palestinians ever deeper into Hamas's embrace.

It is more accurate, however, to sadly acknowledge that Hamas's world view better reflects the extremism, rejectionism and self-destructive tendencies that embody the ethos of much of the Palestinian polity. Fatah's perceived drift toward moderation, combined with its corruption, have made it increasingly irrelevant to many Palestinians....

Though Fatah denounces Israel's battle with Hamas in the most venomous terms, the West Bank masses are said to be fuming that Fatah won't let them confront Israel directly. "This will irreparably damage its standing in the eyes of Palestinians..." an Arab expert told The Christian Science Monitor.

In other words, many ordinary Palestinians want Fatah to again lead them into another violent uprising - despite the devastation a third intifada would bring down on them. Never mind that the standard of living in the West Bank is better than it has been in years.

So the problem is not just a PA demonstrably incapable of reforming itself, or a politically toxic Hamas; it is, more fundamentally, much of the Palestinian political culture.

Unfortunately, this makes sense. Andrew McCarthy is right; in their present condition the Palestinians do not deserve statehood.

Sunday January 20 Update

Melanie Phillips links to sources confirming that since Israeli troops have left, Hamas has returned and Gaza has "returned to rule by thug." They're rounding up and shooting Fatah members and anyone else they dislike.

She points out that the UN, Human Rights Watch, the BBC, and all of the others who were oh-so-offended by Israel's conduct during the war are strangely silent.

No doubt it will all be blamed on Israel.