The Redhunter

From Col. McCaffrey's opening remarks:

COL. MCCAFFREY: ...Over the last 14 months, we've seen a remarkable drop in violence, and a corresponding development of economic growth and Iraqi security force capabilities. And as you all are very much aware, we find ourselves poised on historic provincial elections later this week. In my mind, being here to watch the Iraqis conduct these elections is a perfect conclusion to this tour, and marks an important milestone on this nation's continuing development in democracy and freedom for its people.

While the upcoming elections are a culmination of our tour, there has been much progress that's brought us to this point....

When I last conducted one of these press conferences, I reported that insurgent activity was down nearly 500 percent from a comparable point a year earlier. Since that time in September, we've watched a further 50 percent decline in insurgent activity in northwest Baghdad. It's now very common to go for days without a single violent act in our area. And when attacks do occur, they tend to be isolated, ineffective and focused on the Iraqi security forces, who operate independently and provide the day-to-day security across the region.

Sunni insurgent groups have been pushed out of the towns and villages across our area, and are forced to find fleeting refuge deep in rural areas where it is increasingly difficult for them to plan and stage attacks....

While the insurgency here is not completely defeated, it's now only capable of conducting localized criminal activity that's increasingly within the capability of the local Iraqi security forces or institutions to handle. ....

Candidate posters seem to be everywhere, and there's a palatable excitement in the air. The Iraqi security forces are well prepared, they're well rehearsed, and I believe they have a very solid handle on election security. This is, without question, an Iraqi-led event, and we're honored to be able to see the Democratic process up close and personal.

No doubt the elections will be a major test of the new Iraq. I'm not really worried about election day violence this time. What concerns me is whether any party will emerge with a clear mandate, and whether any incumbent losers will step down gracefully. The latter was discussed more detail by Colonel Butch Kievenaar (2nd Brigade Combat Team, 25th ID): Iraq Briefing - 05 January 2009 - Trying to Ensure Peaceful Transitions of Power.

Dr. Kimberly Kagan's Institute for the Study of War has some very useful primers on the elections.

Excerpts from their Election Fact Sheet:

On January 31, 2009, fourteen of Iraq's eighteen provinces will hold Provincial Elections. Elections in the Kurdish region, including the provinces of Kirkuk, Dahuk, Arbil, and Sulaymaniyah, will be held at a later date. Iraq's last Provincial Elections were held in 2005.

The Iraqi Provincial Elections will be a critical step towards a more stable and sovereign Iraq if they are legitimate. The Sunni, who boycotted the 2005 Iraqi elections, will have the opportunity to achieve proportional representation in the country's provincial councils. Iraq's nascent political party system will have a chance to develop, and Iraq as a whole will be given the chance to demonstrate its ability to hold free and fair elections with a minimum of Coalition support. In short, the elections are a critical test of Iraq's ability to conduct the most fundamental function of a sovereign democracy.

• A total of 502 parties have registered to participate in the election, and a total 14,431 candidates, including 3,912 women, will be vying for 440 open seats on the provincial councils of Iraq.


• 80% of the political parties had formed after the 2005 elections.


• There is an average of 33 candidates per position.


• 36 Coalitions will participate in the elections.


• A provincial council is a governing body similar to an American state legislature.


• Under the Provincial Powers Law of March 19, 2008, provincial councils and governors are given significant authority. The councils have the power to make laws for the province and to allocate funds for projects within that province.


• Provincial Elections were originally scheduled for October 1, 2008, but were delayed due to disagreements over electoral procedure for Kirkuk, a city hotly contested between Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and Turkomen. The Provincial Election Law, passed September 24, 2008, calls for Kirkuk's elections to take place later, under a separate process.

(emphasis added)

"...if they are legitimate." That is certainly the crux of the matter.

A year ago February then-Lt Gen Odierno discussed the importance of the people believing that their government cared about them and had their best interests at heart in what I called his "exit interview". Odierno was leaving his post in Iraq as commander of Multi-National Corps-Iraq for home. The plan was for him to become Army Chief of Staff, but when Adm Fallon was fired from CENTCOM and Gen. Petraeus promoted to fill his place, it was felt that no better person could take over in Iraq that Odierno, the "Patton of Counterinsurgency" himself. Anyway, the important thing is what Odierno said during this interview:

As long as they (the Iraqi people) feel safe... they will continue to support us... if they feel rejected by their government.. that will be a turning point on what decision they make.

And

We need to push the (Iraqi) government to move forward, we need to push the government to be unified with all Iraqis. Those are the kinds of things that if they don't happen could derail the sacrifice and progress that's been made so far this year.

So the importance of the elections is pretty clear. I think that an honest assessment is that once Gates took over as SecDef and Petraeus at MNF-Iraq we've had a no B.S. policy. Petraeus himself said as much in what I call his "how we did it" speech last October before the Association of the United States Army.

Not surprisingly the first question about the elections was about the possibility of violence:

Q Colonel, can you talk about what the potential is for violence in the run-up to, in the aftermath of these elections?

COL. MCCAFFREY: Well, I think the potential is always there for violence. We have not seen a significant increase in violence from the norm, and I think partly for the reason that is of course there is a remarkable Iraqi security force presence on the streets. They are, as I mentioned up front, very well rehearsed and very much in the lead for security.

I'm quite confident that's going to continue through the elections, and I'm very optimistic. I watched elections here in January of '05, and there is a significant change in the character of the Iraqi security forces, both the army and the police, and the cooperation that they're operating with one another. And so I'm very, very optimistic as we make the run-up to the elections.

And then I would -- you know, forecasting across our area, and knowing the brigades we operate, I would imagine we'll see a similar security environment after the elections as well. So it's a very -- it's a positive step here and one I'm -- I sleep quite soundly at night knowing how the Iraqis are operating here.

Col McCaffrey seems pretty confident. I hope it's well placed. As we've seen in many briefings these past few months commanders have stressed that the Iraqi Army is in the lead and we are in oversight role.

Q Jim Mannion from Agence France-Presse. What do you foresee successful elections will do for your area? How will things -- how will that change things? ...I mean, do you expect to see, you know, changes in the way things are run, concrete changes in the way people's, you know, daily lives go?

COL. MCCAFFREY: You know, I'm not a politician, so I'm not sure how that will work over time. I imagine that the people will be satisfied with their elected leaders, and that will bring about a change in their attitude and at least their belief that they have a voice, which they may not feel in all cases they have right now. So I'm optimistic that that will be a change.

But what people on the street see as change all the time is the fact that markets are increasingly stocked with goods, they can move around much more freely than they could months ago, and their security forces are the ones on the street and they recognize very, very clearly that the Iraqi security forces have the lead here and that they are in control.

Indeed much of winning a counterinsurgency is getting the people to believe that the government can and will win. This is the "minds" part of winning "Hearts and Minds" - perhaps the most misunderstood phrase in all of warfare. See here for explanation.

Q (Al Pessin from Voice of America)So if I can follow up, to go back to Andrew's question then, if the elections go smoothly, as you expect, and if it results in a greater public satisfaction with their living situation, as you hope, then doesn't that pretty clearly indicate that a month or two from now, you won't need nearly as many U.S. troops in that area as you have now?

COL. MCCAFFREY: I'm not sure I could put a timeline at all on, you know, whether a month or two is the right time. I would tell you very clearly over time, you'll need fewer troops here in our area. And the Iraqis will continue to do what they're doing more independently. So undoubtedly over time, there will be a requirement for fewer coalition forces....

Although this last exchange is somewhat off topic, we'll cover it because it has been a recurring theme of these briefings. Although the Iraqi Army has made tremendous progress in the area of tactical ability, logistics and supply have been problems. Most briefers are asked how the Iraqi Army units in their areas are faring in this area. The reporters know it has been a problem, and want to keep track of whether we're making progress

Q Yeah, Colonel, it's Al Pessin. Just to follow up on that, I don't think you mentioned supply and logistics, which is what we had been hearing all along was one of the major lacking factors for the Iraqis. Are you doing that for them, or are they starting to do that themselves?

COL. MCCAFFREY: You know, especially at the brigade level, the Iraqi brigades are pretty self-sufficient. I think the logistics piece, in a broader sense, really higher than the brigade level, is really where they've had challenges. And we work with logistics battalions to help them do that.

I'll be honest. The logistics battalions that we've worked with have had phenomenal development, and I think they're working to integrate them in a broader scale. But at the brigade level, where they're out there in the field and living in joint security stations and on checkpoints, they seem to be supplying their soldiers with food, water, fuel, ammunition, as required, those things, quite capably in our area. So at the tactical level, the logistics seem to be working pretty well where I am across the brigades that we operate with.

I will report on the elections probably a few days after the occur, as by then we should have reports not only of the results but the situation on the ground at the polling places. Stay tuned.