The Redhunter

Let their be no doubt that the situation in Afghanistan is bad. On February 3rd DOD Press Secretary Geoff Morrell admitted to a "deteriorating security situation" in "some parts" of Afghanistan. The Taliban rule many of the border areas of Pakistan, and not just Waziristan either. The Pakistani Government is absolutely not to be trusted when they tell us of their efforts to eradicate them.

How long will Afghanistan take to win? Independent journalist and blogger Michael Yon says a very long time

Take all that, and be prepared to work for a century in Afghanistan. Afghanistan will not be a stable country ten years from now. Truly, be prepared for a century of commitment. Most comparisons to Iraq are false or completely inappropriate. Iraq is a relatively advanced country. To compare Iraq to Afghanistan is to compare the United States to Mexico. Vietnam is incredibly more advanced than Afghanistan. One of the poorest countries on earth, Nepal, is by comparison to Afghanistan an advanced country. We cannot allow ourselves to be deluded by the monumental task ahead in Afghanistan. Putting a man on the moon was simple by comparison.

That's an awfully long time. It's important to note that this doesn't mean the same level of warfare, and thus same number of American or allied troops, that entire time. Insurgencies don't end World War II style, with a dramatic battle, tons of casualties, then suddenly everything ends. They peter out slowly. As Kilcullen pointed out to Charlie Rose in the interview linked to above, although the "Malayan Emergency" (i.e. most of the fighting) took place from 1948 to 1960,

The Malayan Communist Party didn't actually surrender until 1989. OK? So the British ran the thing for 12 years. There was another 30 years after that where the insurgents were still out in the environment, still threatening from the Thai-Malay border, and yet reduced to a level where they couldn't threaten the existence of the Malayan state.

Ouch. It took 12 years to defeat the insurgency, but the entire thing lasted over 40. We've only been at Afghanistan for a little over 8.

A few years ago Iraq veteran Lt. Col. John Nagl explored the question in his book with the interesting title of Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam

The title comes from a description by Lieutenant-Colonel Thomas Edward Lawrence, better known as "Lawrence of Arabia," on how messy and slow it was to defeat an insurgency. If you stick it out you can do it, but it's a dirty business, it takes a long time, and it's awfully tempting to give up before you're finished.

Despite all this, it is important to note that few insurgencies actually succeed. This may seem counter intuitive, but it's true. Again, don't take it from me, but David Kilcullen

Counterinsurgency is winnable. About 80 percent of counterinsurgency campaigns have been won. It's a bit of a myth to think that we can't win against insurgents. Insurgents usually lose.

It's winnable, but we need patience. As quoted approvingly in then Lt. Gen. Petraeus' Field Manual 3-24,

"It is a persistently methodical approach and steady pressure which will gradually wear the insurgent down. The government must not allow itself to be diverted either by counter-moves on the part of the insurgent or by the critics on its own side who will be seeking a simpler and quicker solution. There are no short-cuts and no gimmicks - Sir Robert Thompson, Defeating Communist Insurgency: The Lessons of Malaya and Vietnam, 1966

The Challenge from the Left

Obama is not going to face his biggest challenge from the right on this issue. During the last two campaigns the Democrat candidates told us that Iraq was a distraction from the "real war" in Afghanistan. The left in general has echoed this theme. This, I believe, was simply a stick with which to beat the right for political advantage. The far left never even liked that our presence in Afghanistan, and you don't have to go far on leftist sites like this one to prove it. As such, I predict that it won't be long before they're clamoring for a withdrawal there.

Don't take my word for it. Just last month the Washington Post sounded the alarm about Democrat intentions:

For years, Democrats excoriated the Bush administration for not devoting sufficient resources to Afghanistan. But now that Barack Obama has taken office, some seem to be having second thoughts. "Our original goal was to go in there and take on al-Qaeda. . . . It was not to adopt the 51st state of the United States," said Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), the new chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Mr. Kerry pioneered the Democratic argument to send more troops during his own presidential campaign in 2004. Now he says "the parallels" to Vietnam "just really keep leaping out in so many different ways."

Ah yes, it is an absolute rule on the left that all American wars must be immediately be said to be "another Vietnam." The better to declare defeat and sound the retreat.

Another story last month in the Post questions whether Obama himself believes we can turn things around

President-elect Barack Obama intends to sign off on Pentagon plans to send up to 30,000 more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, but the incoming administration does not anticipate that the Iraq-like "surge" of forces will significantly change the direction of a conflict that has steadily deteriorated over the past seven years.

Instead, Obama's national security team expects that the new deployments, which will nearly double the current U.S. force of 32,000 (alongside an equal number of non-U.S. NATO troops), will help buy enough time for the new administration to reappraise the entire Afghanistan war effort and develop a comprehensive new strategy for what Obama has called the "central front on terror."

I've no idea what that actually means, and the worrysome part is that I'm not sure he does either.

Nonetheless, I do certainly hope that our president sticks it out and tells anyone who wants to pull out to shove it. I hope that he and Secretary Clinton can persuade our erstwhile allies not only to contribute more troops but to remove the restrictive rules of engagement that keep so many of them from doing anything other than pulling guard duty in safe areas. I'm not optimistic about any of it, but in this area I do want him to succeed.

But if and when the Democrats do demand withdrawal, it will be "for the children," because "the money is badly needed at home for a school lunch program." Mark my words.