The Redhunter

Further, the Sunnis participated fully this time, having realized their past mistake of boycotting the 2005 elections. Just as important, the Sunni parties who appear to have done well were the ones based around tribal loyalties who are not anti-American as is the Islamic ones.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Islamic Dawa Party also appears to have done well, beating out the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which consolidates his position. As the name implies, the Dawa party is religious, but all in all seems better than the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which is the major Shiite religious party.

Walid Phares, two of whose books on the worldwide jihad I have reviewed here, offers his usual cogent analysis of what the elections mean. Following are excerpts:

Why are the Iraqi elections important to Americans and the rest of the international community? Simply because it will show, or won't, that "spreading democracy" is possible in that part of the world, a principle against which Jihadist forces, authoritarian regimes and many critics within the West have challenged....

2) The Jihadist forces of Iraq, including al Qaeda, dislike the rise of a democratic culture and the pro-Iranian militants plan on using the system to their advantage. Massive violence didn't erupt in diverse areas such as the Diyala province or in cities such as Mosul but few incidents. But here again the preparedness of Iraqi forces, assisted by the Coalition, will tell about the readiness of the country to manage its own elections in the future.

3) The level of participation will tell us if popular trust in elections is taking root and any numbers higher than 60 % will confirm this....

5) These elections will produce a new majority in Iraq, which will be always determined by coalition building. However, one result is certain: there will be no return to a single-party dictatorship. Iraq may break in pieces, but it will never return to a Saddam-like monstrosity; and that is what authoritarians in contiguous countries fear the most.

The seeds of elections are now planted in Mesopotamia. With more than 140 political party and associations, hundreds of newspapers, publications, dozens of radio and TV stations, a mosaic is in existence. It will be hard on the Iranian Mullahs and on al Qaeda to crush all this diversity...Once young Iraqis (who will be voting for the first time), along with women who have broken the walls of gender exclusiveness and minorities emerging from the underground, have tasted and tested this democratic exercise, a resistance to fascism and totalitarianism is born.

Let's hope he's right. Not wearing rose-colored glasses, Phares cautions that "these are the early baby steps of Iraqi democracy" and the forces of totalitarianism, namely Syria, Iran, and, well, just about every other Muslim country in the region will work to kill the baby in it's cradle. A gruesome analogy but apt.

Additional Coverage

Kimberly Kagan's Institute for the Study of War has an excellent news roundup. As with Phares' piece above, check them out, but the titles alone are pretty telling:

Washington Post - In Iraq's North, Vote Tallies To Define Loyalties, Dispute, by Ernesto Londono

Washington Post - Maliki's Party Poised to Win in Key Regions, by Ernesto Londono

Washington Times - Iraqi election hints of party shift, from AP

New York Times - Secular Parties and Premier Lead in Iraq, by Alissa J. Rubin

New York Times - Election: What The Papers Say, by Stephen Farrell

LA Times - In Iraq, security trumps sectarianism at polls, by Tina Susman

Associated Press - Sunni party likely big winner in northern Iraq, by Kim Gamel

LA Times - Iraq vote turnout fails to meet expectations, by Monte Morin

Washington Times - Election troublesome for some Shiites, by Brian Muphy of AP

Reuters - Vote sows seeds of greater calm in Iraq's north, by Tim Cocks

Previous

Iraq Briefing - 26 January 2009 - The Upcoming Iraqi Elections
Iraq Briefing - 05 January 2009 - Trying to Ensure Peaceful Transitions of Power

Saturday February 7 Update

Bill Roggio reports in The Weekly Standard the good news that the Sadrists did poorly:

The results of Iraq's provincial elections are in, and the parties backed by Muqtada al Sadr's political movement fared poorly in regions of southern and central Iraq where he is considered to be influential. In Maysan province, which used to be run by the Sadrist movement, the Sadrists received 15.2 percent of the vote, placing it in second. In Baghdad, where the neighborhood of Sadr City has two million Shia supposedly under his influence, the movement received nine percent (tied second place). In Basrah, the movement received five percent (fourth place). The Sadrists finished third and fourth in Najaf and Karbala respectively. These provinces used to be considered Sadrist "strongholds."

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, who was said to have been defeated and humiliated by Sadr during the operation against the Mahdi Army in Basrah and in Baghdad, did quite well. His party won the elections in nine of the 14 provinces where elections were held, including in Baghdad, Basrah, and Maysan. Of the 10 Shia-dominated provinces, Maliki's party finished first on nine of them.

Sadr's Mahdi Army took a real beating last year at the hands of the Iraqi security forces and the Coalition. This year, the Iraqi people gave the Sadrist movement another beating, this time at the polls.