The Redhunter

One, Iran will not be deterred by conventional or nuclear weapons in the same way the Soviets could be deterred. Evil as the communists where, they were atheists, and as such in the end wanted to live. There was no benefit to them if at the end of a war their country lay in ashes. The Khomeinists who rule Iran are religious zealots, and while they have the earthly goal of establishing a regional Imamate, are willing do die if that's what it takes. Former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has said that

Amid chants of "Death to Israel," he declared, "The use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything. . . . It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality." Even if Israel responded with its own nuclear arsenal, the Islamic Republic has the strategic depth to absorb and withstand the retaliation, and so the price might be worth it. "It will only harm the Islamic world," he argued.[9] When it comes to Iranian desires to possess nuclear weapons rather than simply a civilian nuclear energy program, Rafsanjani's statements have become the rule rather than the exception.

And of course current President Ahmadinejad is well known for his fixation on the return of the Mahdi, and might even believe he can prompt his return by creating "chaos and bloodshed" on earth.

At any rate, it is always a mistake to "mirror image" and assume the other side plays by your rules. That is, to assume they share your assumptions and reason as you do.

Two, no country in their right mind would accept a U.S. assurance that we'll use nuclear weapons against Iran if they get hit, and this includes Israel.

Defending western Europe was one thing, the Middle East another. If an Arab state gets hit with a nuclear weapon, there will be a huge outcry in the West to the effect of "why should we kill innocent Iranians to protect Arabs?" If Israel gets hit, many in the U.S. will demand retaliation, but many will demand object. And I'm not at all optimistic about Europe if Israel gets hit.

And this is if the U.S. homeland or our military bases (read personnel) overseas are not directly threatened. Any Iranian with his salt will threaten a retaliatory nuclear attack on either the U.S. homeland or a regional military base if we intervene.

The threat against the U.S. homeland need not be real to be effective. They don't need ICBMs, all they need to do is announce they've got a short-range missile on an mystery cargo ship off the U.S. coast, or a bomb planted in one of our cities, and how are we to know they're bluffing? Will we take the chance?

So in the end I think that in the face of a threatened Iranian strike not many U.S. presidents, and certainly no Democrat ones, will strike Iran.

As such, the countries of the region will get their own nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt all have the capability to do so. And then we'll have a series of barely stable governments armed with the worlds most dangerous weapons, all on hair trigger alert. Great.

Therefore, the only thing to do is stop Iran from getting the bomb. If President Obama wants to try one more round of talks, ok, fine. But when if they fail, we're going to have to preempt Iran by striking their facilities.

Of course, this entire situation could have been avoided had the Bush Administration pursued a policy of regime change in Iran through clandestine means. I think the evidence, though, is that they didn't, if for no other reason than that the Democrats in Congress would have leaked it and Obama would have announced it. Obama should pursue this strategy himself, but he won't.

I think you can tell I'm very pessimistic.