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October 12, 2009
How to Win in Afghanistan: Kimberly Kagan and Jeffrey Dressler
A bit longer than the interview with Lara Logan below, but well worth your time
Make sure you also read Dr. Kagan's Key Facts on Afghanistan for background.l
Following are my notes from the briefing:
- The enemy in Helmund has the initiative
- What the coalition has been doing has not worked
- The 4,000 Marines sent to southern Helmund earlier this year have done some good but are not enough
- Civil projects will not work since the population is unsecured
- We need more troops in order to implement a proper counterinsurgency strategy
- A population-centric counterinsurgency is what is needed for us to succeed
- The key is protecting the population, or at least major population centers
- The main enemy insurgent group is the Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) does not call itself the "Quetta Shura Taliban," but the "Islamic Emerate of Afghanistan" it sees itself as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. It is in Pakistan now.
- The other enemy insurgent group is the The Haqqani network, named after its leader Jalaluhuddin Haqqani, is an insurgent group operates in eastern Afghanistan
- These Taliban are imposing taxes on some population areas in southern Afghanistan as a way to fund their activities. They are the government in some areas. They have their own court system
- Both of these groups have historical and current links to other terrorist groups such as but not limited to al Qaeda.
- The insurgents are succeeding through a campaign of intimidation, not just of the population at large but they target local leaders. Assassination is a key tool. They have a platform and agenda
- The enemy is not a group of ragtag fighters. They are determined and well organized.
- Currently, when our forces go into a town in Helmund, they're asked "are you staying?" When our forces answer no, the people say "then we won't help you because if we do the Taliban will come back and punish us." (me - parallel to Iraq pre-surge!)
- If we withdraw or go to a counterterror strategy the Taliban will form a shadow government in southern Afghanistan.
- The Taliban are Afghans, not Pakistanis.
- We cannot impose a government on the people in Afghanistan, but must do what we are doing very well in Iraq: hold the government accountable to the people. If the government is predatory and does not provide services we must help the people hold them accountable. We cannot indiscriminately support the government officials. We are there to serve the people and make sure the government is accountable to them and that they serve you. So we must strengthen the institutions of local government. We must also leverage the international community to strengthen the national government, or at least the parts of it that work.
- Although opium and the drug trade is a source of income for the Taliban, they also make money by taxing legal crops. So even if we got rid of poppy production they'd still make money by taxing other crops. So an eradication campaign may not do much good. Further, it alienates the farmers. In fact, the Taliban does not conduct operations during harvest time (of all crops) so as not to disturb the farmers.
- Chasing the insurgents around Afghanistan will not work.
Posted by Tom at October 12, 2009 9:45 PM
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Comments
Once again, and you're probably sick of this Tom. Not one thing in any of these ideas as to how to pay for this "victory."
I did notice the Taliban "taxing" people.
Posted by: Truth 101 at October 13, 2009 6:21 PM
