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October 12, 2009
How to Win in Afghanistan: Lara Logan
This is a must-watch.
CBS News Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Lara Logan speaks with Bob Orr about what will work in Afghanistan and what will not work. She absolutely eviscerates advisers such as Vice-President Biden who think that we can succeed with special forces and airpower. She also takes down those who say that the Taliban aren't a threat to the U.S. or that there are "moderate" Taliban with whom we can negotiate.
The lady knows what she's talking about.
Principles of Counterinsurgency: What Does and What Does Not Work
I sent this as an email to a friend the other day, but it will serve our purpose here. It represents everything I have learned and posted on this blog over the past two and a half years about how to defeat an insurgency. I cleaned it up a bit but otherwise not much has changed. I'm posting it here because it serves as a nice backdrop to Ms. Logan's comments.
- The key is to protect the population. Unless the people feel secure nothing else is possible.
- You cannot protect the people with a few special forces and certainly not with airpower. It requires regular troops on the ground.
- Once an insurgency has reached a certain point, simply training the indigenous army to do the job won't work.
- Political and economic advancement can only occur after the population is secure.
- The fastest way to lose against an insurgency is the overuse of force. Killing civilians and destroying things turns the people against you, so the counterinsurgents must go out of their way to avoid civilian casualties.
- Relying on airstrikes and raids by special forces does not work.
- The insurgents must not be allowed to have a sanctuary.
- Not all insurgents are equal. Some are hard-core and must be killed or captured, but some are opportunists in it for a few bucks, because they are unemployed and need money to feed their families, or even because their family was threatened if they didn't plant a bomb or two. It is imperative that these individuals be "peeled off" the insurgency and brought into the government - even if they have killed Americans.
- In the beginning, some of the population will be on the side of the insurgents, and some on the side of the government, but most will want to "sit on the fence." The insurgency will succeed if the mass of people continue to sit on the fence. For the counterinsurgents to be successful, they must convince the people that A) the counterinsurgents will win, and B) it is in their interests for the counterinsurgents to win.
- Commanders must become expert in all aspects of the area that they are assigned to. This includes local customs, religions observances, economics, social links between families. They must know every village, road, field, business, and ancient grievance.
- It is vital for the indigenous government to be seen as legitimate by the people. If this is not achieved, the counterinsurgents will not be successful.
- In the end, the people must take charge of their own future.
- In the end, the indigenous army must take over the role of counterinsurgents
- In the end, only political reform can completely end an insurgency.
- No insurgency in modern times has been defeated in less than ten years, so patience is of the essence.
- It may be many years until you can be sure you've won. Insurgencies end with a whimper, not a bang. They aren't like World War II, which ended in dramatic fashion (low-intensity v high-intensity war).
Posted by Tom at October 12, 2009 8:45 PM
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Comments
Saw this little lady on the Colbert Report last week and I was imminently impressed with her knowledge.
Wading through Colbert's sticky stupidity made it difficult to fully appreciate her analytical abilities. But she shined nevertheless. Glad to see I was not alone in recognizing and appreciating her intelligence and knowledge on foreign affairs.
Posted by: Mike at October 12, 2009 10:44 PM
