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October 11, 2009

Obama's Evolving Promises on Afghanistan

Jim Geraghty traces the evolution of Obama's promises about what he'd do about Afghanistan, from his candidacy to this past week:

Then-candidate Barack Obama, July 15, 2008:
Our troops and our NATO allies are performing heroically in Afghanistan, but I have argued for years that we lack the resources to finish the job because of our commitment to Iraq. That's what the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said earlier this month. And that's why, as President, I will make the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban the top priority that it should be. This is a war that we have to win.

And then in August, before the VFW:

This is the central front in the war on terrorism. This is where the Taliban is gaining strength and launching new attacks, including one that just took the life of ten French soldiers. This is where Osama bin Laden and the same terrorists who killed nearly 3,000 Americans on our own soil are hiding and plotting seven years after 9/11. This is a war that we have to win.
And then in his convention address:
I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

And then on October 22:

Abroad, we need a new direction that ends the war in Iraq, focuses on the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban, and restores strong alliances and tough American diplomacy.

The New York Times, today:

President Obama's national security team is moving to reframe its war strategy by emphasizing the campaign against Al Qaeda in Pakistan while arguing that the Taliban in Afghanistan do not pose a direct threat to the United States, officials said Wednesday.

I think we know where this is headed.

In the post just previous to this one I showed how the Administration has been laying the groundwork for withdrawal by telling us that

1) "the Taliban is not...a homogenous group."
2) They could bring elements of the Taliban into the government
3) This different Taliban would not harbor al Qaeda
4) Therefore we could draw down troops as we have no fight with the Taliban.

I sincerely hope this does not come to pass. I hope he adopts Gen. McChrystal's recommendations but I fear he will not.

Posted by Tom at October 11, 2009 9:00 PM

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Comments

I would hope Obama would either adopt a Cloin Doctrine and amass a half million troops from a coalition to secure Afghanistan. And Iraq for that matter. But the fact is we would have to pay for it. You can't borrow anymore for freedom. Realistically it's our economy or the future of Iraq and Afghanistan in an unending expensive occupation.


As Rush Limbaugh said when he was against nation building before he was fot it. "We can't afford it."

Posted by: Truth 101 at October 12, 2009 2:04 PM

Tom, thank you for those brilliant observations.

I mean, I as a Euro have more or less completely missed that "evolution", but when you see it printed out like that...

... it's actually pretty clear where this administration is heading to.

Posted by: Outlaw Mike at October 12, 2009 4:53 PM

....And now Obama just approved sending an additional 13,000 troops to Afghanistan, in direct contradiction to his "left wing" base. Contrary to what Outlaw Mike says, it seems clear that he has increased our footprint, while Bush largely ignored the problem for many years. If he is such a socialist and left wing puppet, why is he sending more troops now?

The great thing about the Obama administration is they have a debate. Yes, please criticize the Biden camp and their ideas and position. I think this is a good and healthy debate for us to have. We don't have to call him a coward or claim that he hates America, his ideas are just not the best and the best way to look at all aspects of a problem is to have a good debate. It is such a great change to see this administration encourage different points of views, before coming to a decision (to send more troops, not withdraw then.)

Tom, in regard to point #3, listen to the Patreaus speech I linked to in a previous post, in which Gen. Petreaus clearly states there are elements of the Taliban he thinks we can bring 'into the fold' or the government. Do you honestly think Bush did any better? Obama has initiated two surges, this recent 13,000 is the second wave. Sure, it is not as much as Gen. McChrystal wanted, but I get sick of hearing conservatives say he is a socialist and does nothing to make America safer. He has clearly increased our effectiveness in Afghanistan, and done this against the will of his "far left" base so many conservatives say he is beholden to.

Posted by: jason at October 13, 2009 5:26 AM

Bottom line is that President Obama has not committed to adopting General McChrystal's recommendations, at least not yet. If he does I will congratulate him for doing the right thing, but the jury is still out.

Those additional troops are support troops, not combat brigades. So he isn't surging troops at all in the same way we sent five additional brigades to Iraq in the first half of 2007. From Fox News:

Pentagon Refutes Report That Obama Dispatched 13,000 Additional Troops to Afghanistan

The Washington Post reported that President Obama had dispatched 13,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, but the Defense Department said there's no accurate way to pin down a number of support forces that are associated with the Obama buildup of troops.

The Pentagon moved Tuesday to shoot down a Washington Post report that said President Obama had dispatched 13,000 additional troops to Afghanistan.

The Post reported that the additional troops are primarily support forces -- such as engineers, medical personnel, intelligence experts and military police.

But the Defense Department, commenting on the Post report, said there's no accurate way to pin down a number of support forces that are associated with the Obama buildup of troops.

In fact, many of the support forces that have gone to Afghanistan since February 17 -- when Obama ordered the deployment of additional forces -- already were scheduled to deploy under forces President Bush had approved, according to Pentagon Spokesman Col. Dave Lapan.

In a Washington Post story from Tuesday they say the same:

The additional troops are primarily support forces, including engineers, medical personnel, intelligence experts and military police. Their deployment has received little mention by officials at the Pentagon and the White House, who have spoken more publicly about the combat troops who have been sent to Afghanistan.

If it turns out that these are down payments on what General McChrystal wants, then all fine and good, and I will congratulate the president for doing the right thing. So far though there has been no final decision.

As for being deliberative, well, this is a decision he should have taken months ago. I understand that he has a domestic agenda, but he's spent far too much time partying, on vacation at Martha's Vinyard, appearing on Letterman, golfing, and jet-setting to Copenhagen to lobby for the Olympics. He should have been having these debates the first half of the year,not the last half. If he wants to be president he needs to stop the playing around and knuckle down to some hard work. Maybe though he's finally realized that he has to go from campaigner-in-chief to commander-in-chief.

To be sure, President Bush waited far too long to change our strategy in Iraq. He should have realized far earlier that the Rumsfeld/Abizaid/Casey "small footprint" approach wasn't working and brought in a new team, but instead he got consumed with domestic affairs, among them his failed attempt to reform Social Security. I said all this at the time, as I think you'll recall because you commented on those posts.

Posted by: Tom the Redhunter at October 14, 2009 7:14 AM

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