The Redhunter

For months the United States has been building up troops in Afghanistan since President Obama's decision to "surge" troops last December 1. Between now and then we have been moving troops and supplies into the country, in particular Helmund Province, the area that has seen the most activity from the Taliban (or Quetta Shura Taliban (QST), as they are most properly called.) No doubt that between Dec 1 and now, these additional troops have not simply been getting settled in their bases but engaged in what the military calls "preparing the ground," which entails things such as getting familiar with the terrain and populace, identifying enemy targets, and even "herding" enemy forces into certain areas by selective targeting and precision strikes.

Via the BBC: British and Afghan forces prepare for battle in Helmand:

CNN has a very good Q & A with Andrew Exum, who served in both Iraq and Afghanistan and was on Gen. Stanley McChrystal's review team of the Afghanistan strategy, and Mark Moyar, professor of national security affairs at the Marine Corps University, on why Marjah and why now:

Q: Many have never even heard of Marjah - why is the area such a big deal?

Moyar: Marjah is in Helmand province where they've made a major push in the past year with the Marines. It is the last major enemy holdout, and it is serving as a sanctuary - it is allowing them to stage military attacks, build IEDs. And it is militarily imperative and also psychologically imperative that we remove this sanctuary area, make it harder for the insurgents to operate. It's much harder for them if they don't have that sanctuary area now so they can still move into sanctuaries in other places like Pakistan, but we're going to work on those as well. But this is really a big thorn in our side and one that we're clearly going to address in the near future.

Q: Why haven't coalition forces tried securing Marjah before now?

Exum: Unfortunately, when you look at our force-to-population ratios in Helmand and throughout Afghanistan really, we're not matched up to a degree where we can secure every place all the time. However, the Marines have had a lot of security gains in Helmand province over the past year, and so now it makes sense to go after Marjah at this time because we have had some gains elsewhere through that Helmand River valley.

Q: If indeed this will be a victory for NATO forces, will this be a game-changer for the whole war?

Exum: No, it's not. In Afghanistan, unfortunately, there's no silver bullet. There's no one thing that we're going to do that's going to turn the tide. What you're going to see in Afghanistan is very steady, very unglamorous offensives whereby we're moving in and trying to secure the population, to buy the Afghan government some time and space to build up key institutions. No one thing is going to be a game-changer. There is no silver bullet in Afghanistan. This is the long, hard slog of counterinsurgency, unfortunately. But so far the Marines in Helmand province have done very well over the past year since they've been deployed there.

Moyar: That's right, it is going to be a long process. These types of wars aren't going to be decided by a single battle, and we're going to have to hold this area. Even bigger than going in and clearing it out is going to be what we do afterward, because we have gone in and cleared that area several times before but we haven't had a good follow-on plan, we haven't had robust security forces, and the enemy has come back.

Don't be put off by the implied timeframe. This isn't a high-intensity war like World War II. As I've written about a zillion times, that it takes years if not decades to defeat an insurgency does NOT mean that the same level of troops are required the entire time. High-intensity wars end with a bang, low-intensity wars (insurgencies) end with a whimper; the peter out over the course of several years.

Via Fox News, a U.S. Marine from Bravo Company of the 1st Battalion, 6th Marines runs during a heavy gun battle in the town of Marjah, Afghanistan:

From what I can tell, Operation Mostarak is our first use of these troops in a full-scale offensive operation. As such, it is somewhat equivalent to Operation Phantom Thunder, launched June 16, 2007, the first of a series of operations in Iraq which made use of surge troops there.

Bill Roggio assesses the situation and describes the overall military strategy:

Since 2006, the Taliban have made a dramatic comeback in Afghanistan after being driven from the country in 2002. As security has deteriorated, they have steadily taken control of more and more territory. In response, a new strategic plan for Afghanistan has been formulated by General Stanley McChrystal, Commander of ISAF and US Forces - Afghanistan. On Dec. 3, 2009, this plan was approved by the Obama administration. While there are several important aspects of the strategy, such as political development, economic development, counter narcotics, and the police and justice system, this article will focus on the military aspect. ...

The McChrystal military plan covers the short term, the next 12-18 months. The plan's main goal is to halt the progress of the Taliban, to reverse it in key areas, and to regain the initiative.

The first part of the strategy de-emphasizes the counterterrorism strategy and institutes a counterinsurgency strategy. This means reducing efforts on going after Taliban combatants and increasing efforts to provide security to the population. While the insurgency can afford to lose fighters and leaders, it cannot afford to lose control of the population.

For the short term, the US does not consider it necessary to control the entire country but rather to secure a few key areas and population centers. The goal is for the people of Afghanistan to first see an opportunity for a normal, better future, and then to start to experience it.

The key areas that General McChrystal has identified are:

• Helmand province, particularly the Helmand River valley
• Kandahar City and the areas surrounding the city
• The provinces of Paktika, Paktia, and Khost

The second part of the strategy is to develop the Afghan National Security Force into a force that is capable of providing security for the country. Although ANSF development will not be completed in 18 months, it needs to demonstrate both substantial progress and that the long term goal of the ANSF providing for security for the entire country is achievable. A major review will be held in December 2010 to assess progress.

Additional details at The Long War

Also from the BBC: A US soldier returns fire as others run for cover during a firefight with insurgents in the Badula Qulp area, West of Lashkar Gah in Helmand province, southern Afghanistan:

Vice-President Joe Biden and others advocated the counter-terror approach to Afghanistan, which President Obama wisely rejected. General Petraeus' U.S. Army / Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual 3-24 (released Dec 2006), which laid out the strategy behind the successful surge in Iraq, says flat out that in order to defeat an insurgency troops must maintain a presence in areas under contention, and that "raiding from remote, secure bases does not work." FM 3-24 also speaks to part two of McChrystal's strategy

6-1 Success in counterinsurgency (COIN) operations requires establishing a legitimate government supported by the people and able to address the fundamental causes that insurgents use to gain support. Achieving these goals requires the host nation to defeat insurgents or render them irrelevant, upholding the rule of law, and provide a basic level os essential and security for the populace. Key to all these tasks is developing an effective host-nation (HN) security force.

6-29 Training HN (host nation) security forces is a slow and painstaking process. It does not lend itself to a "quick fix".

BBC: British soldiers from the First Battalion The Royal Welsh mobilise for Operation Moshtarak at Camp Bastion:

As to how well Moshtark is working, an ISAF press release says we've achieved our initial objectives:

The initial key objectives of Operation Moshtarak have been achieved in a short space of time and with minimal interference from the Taliban, according to UK military spokesman Major General Gordon Messenger.

The "clearing" phase of the operation was launched at 0400hrs local time this morning with a series of simultaneous helicopter assaults and ground offensives undertaken by thousands of Afghan Army forces and ISAF soldiers from nations including the UK, US, Denmark and Estonia.

Major General Messenger said:

"It is still early days but operational commanders are currently pleased with the progress that has been made since the operation was launched this morning.

"There has been some resistance but it has been relatively light and the initial objective of surprising the Taliban with the time and place of the operation appears to have been achieved."

Major General Messenger said the key objectives of this phase of the operation was the built up population areas where troops were inserted via helicopters. Ground elements, linked up with these troops according to plan.