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April 10, 2010
Forget About Useful Sanctions on Iran
All of you hoping that Obama would somehow usher in a new glorious era of international relations have been played for fools. Russia, for example, isn't about to agree to serious sanctions on Iran. From Friday's Washington Post:
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told President Obama privately Thursday that there remain limits to his country's support for sanctions on Iran, even as the move for united action to restrain Iran's nuclear ambition accelerates. ...In his remarks, Medvedev said he agrees that nations cannot "turn a blind eye" to Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and said he "cannot disagree" with what Obama said. But he made clear that Russian support for sanctions will be conditioned on their intent to change Iran's behavior, not to punish its people.
"Let me put it straightforward," Medvedev said of his discussions with Obama at the meeting at Prague Castle. "I have outlined our limits for such sanctions."
Officials from both countries said later that Medvedev privately offered a broad range of objections to sanctions, including actions that would create economic hardship for Iran, foment financial chaos or lead to regime change.
Translation: We're going to let Iran get nukes because we don't care.
If Obama thought that signing a new START treaty with Russia was going to get him anything he's dumber than I thought. The Russians don't care about Iranian nukes because everyone knows they'd blow any country that nuked them to kingdom come. Everyone also knows that with this president, and may potential Republican ones, we'd dither and agonize of this or that moral question until the cows came home.
Bush punted the problem to Obama, who has fumbled the ball. Once again, so much for hope and change. The bottom line to those who still obsess over what Bush should or should not have done is that we are where we are. I've long advocated a policy of regime change, but that option is probably past us as well. We're not going to get useful sanctions, so a U.S. military strike is the only thing left.
Israel does not have the capability to do the damage needed. They'll only get one strike, then international "outrage" will prevent further action. Their F-15s and F-16s are limited in the ordinance they can carry, and they don't have that many aircraft to begin with. Finally, we've refused to sell them the newer bunker busters that are really needed to get the job done.
Only the USAF and USN in a sustained weeks long campaign can get the job done, and I don't see the political will for a strike. Given that the Obama Administration isn't serious about pushing Russia or China for meaningful sanctions, and doesn't have the stomach for a fight, it looks like they have accepted the inevitability of Iranian nuclear weapons.
Posted by Tom at April 10, 2010 10:30 PM
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Comments
Know and be aware of:
Iran is a peaceful country and its further sanctions, they can progress further.
Posted by: Anonymous at June 1, 2010 5:40 AM
