The Redhunter

When I challenged him on this, Cirincione -- likely unaware that I spent five years in the Air Force as a Minuteman III launch officer -- replied: "Of the 5113 weapons, about half are ready to use in minutes; about half could be used in hours, days, or for some, weeks."

Let's explore that claim. Half of those bombs are in an inactive state, either waiting to be destroyed or cannibalized to support the operational stockpile. Many of the components on our nuclear weapons haven't been built for two decades, which means that three of the four categories of nuclear warheads are dedicated to supporting the operational force.

And then there's the logistical and planning issues of the "ready to use" argument. Every launcher in our inventory would have to be alerted and fully armed with warheads, all 14 subs would have to be flushed out to launch boxes (we keep around 3-4 on alert), and all of our bombers would have to be fully swapped from conventional support roles, nuclear certified, and armed with a full complement of cruise missiles. Targeteers at U.S. Strategic Command would have to build an entire library of warplans to find aimpoints for the bombs, most of which haven't been operationally certified in years. Disposal plants and storage facilities would have to be emptied in the largest exodus of nuclear weapons in history, but not before thousands of warheads would need to be fitted with parts that no longer exist. Submarine and ground launched missiles would require new targeting data, additional fuel, and extra warheads. Thousands of pages of reference documents and target listings would have to be crafted, and all nuclear crews would have to be fully trained on the new procedures. And, if that string of miracles were to occur, we'd still come up short on launchers to actually deliver the bombs. That we have 5k nuclear warheads ready to be used, even in months, isn't just unlikely -- it's impossible.

After the Cold War ended, the stockpile was kept classified for precisely this reason: politics. Transparency in this sense is not a threat to national security, but the ensuing disarmament fever -- fueled by an ill-informed anti-nuke movement -- certainly could. Our nuclear inventory consists of 5k --soon to be 4600-- bombs for good reason. It keeps the deployed operational force of approximately 800 warheads ticking. So Obama may have declassified the stockpile to build some extra political muscle for his various disarmament initiatives, but instead the president ended up making a superb case for nuclear modernization.

So you see, the issue is a lot more complicated than simply citing a single figure. Let's review some of the points made in the article:

1. For sound military and political reasons we have not traditionally released the exact number of nuclear warheads in the U.S. arsenal.
   
2. The Obama Administration claims that the exact figure is 5,113.
   
3. Only half of that number are ready for immediate use.
   
4. Some of the other half could be readied for use after an uncertain period of time
   
5. Some of the other half are effectively unusable.
   
6. Nuclear warheads are not fungible, which is to say that they are not all available to fulfill all mission scenarios. The W76 and W88 warheads on a Navy Trident II are capable of one thing, the B-83 and AGM-86B cruise missiles carried by a B-52/B-1 or B-2 another.
   

Another thing that Mr Cirincione said that is simply not true; "one (hydrogen bomb) destroys a city." A common myth is that all nuclear weapons are more or less the same in destructive power. The truth is that they vary considerably, with the smallest not much more powerful than the largest conventional explosives. Still very powerful to be sure, but not all are "city busters."

Statistics on military weaponry are tricky things. If you look up the F-15 Eagle you'll see that it's maximum speed is listed as 1,650+ mph, combat radius as 1,222 miles, and can carry up to 16,000 lb on it's external pylons.

All true, but it can't do all of them on the same mission. For example, getting to 1,650mph requires a "clean" aircraft (ie carrying nothing), and aerial refueling both before and after the speed attempt. Nuclear weapons aren't much different.

For example, what is termed the "hydrogen" bomb is not a static device that you can sit on a shelf for 20 years, take it off, and be assured it will work. You can, on the other hand, take a bullet or traditional bomb off a shelf where it's been sitting for far more than 20 years and be assured that they will work. For example, tritium, an isotope of hydrogen, makes up (some) of the "hydrogen" in a hydrogen bomb (it's all terribly complicated). Tritium decays and must be replaced at periodic intervals.

Here's the bottom line; maybe we have the right number of warheads in our arsenal right now or we don't. Maybe we need more, maybe less. Maybe we should develop new ones and spend more to ensure the workability of our current ones, or we shouldn't. But simply citing a single figure and comparing that to single figures from other countries is highly misleading.