The Redhunter

For the rest of this post I'm going to recycle some things I've written before.

Most of our weapons are getting very old. The F-15 Eagle first flew in 1972. The F-16 Falcon in 1979, and the F-18 Hornet 1982. The first Los Angeles class submarine was launched in 1976. The CH-53 first flew in 1981, and the H47 in 1962.

Bombers? The last B-52 rolled off of the assembly line in 1962, and we've only got about 90 operational ones left. The B-1b Lancer is an upgraded 1970s design, with only 66 active. The B-2 Spirit is the most impressive of all... but we've only got 20 of them.

But that's ok, because our tanker fleet of KC-10 and KC-135s are about as old, and we're running out of them too.

The F-35 Lightning II

Yes all of the above systems have undergone major upgrades. I know all this. But you can only do so much with an old airframe. Sure, we could build a new helicopter instead of the tilt-rotor V-22 and it would be better than what is in the inventory. But we are really at about the limit of what you can do with helicopter technology, so it would be an exercise in the point of diminishing returns.

Instead of the F-22 Raptor we could rely on the somewhat less expensive F-35 Lightning II JSF. This, however, would have been the equivalent of canceling the F-15 and relying on the F-16. Ask any pilot about the wisdom of that potential decision.

Russia and China are building new aircraft like there's no tomorrow; see this list at the Federation of American Scientists. The newer aircraft are very good, and are being exported to many countries around the world. Besides the Russian and Chinese aircraft, the ones coming out of Europe are very good and they hope to sell them to countries that, who knows, we may have to fight one day. China is cranking out ships and submarines too, and is looking to have an aircraft carrier by the end of the decade, from what I read.

Mig-29 "Fulcrum"

Supporters of the decision to cut further production of the F-22 need to hope that we don't get into any shooting wars in which our planes are shot down, and ex-pilots start going on TV saying "if only we'd had the F-22..." No matter how good Obama's diplomacy, events can spiral out of control. Right or left I think we can all agree that there are a lot of crazies running countries right now.

The Navy

Back to the piece in

The Weekly Standard

Gates also noted that the U.S. battlefleet is larger than the next 13 navies combined. True. But what he didn't say is that the current number of ships in the fleet, 286, is substantially below the minimum set by several previous studies of what the Navy requires to carry out all the tasks it is charged with around the world. Nor does he mention that this number is shrinking--and will shrink, if the budget stays as is, to levels not seen since the early 20th century. Undoubtedly, the ships of today are far more combat-capable than those of even 15 years ago. Still, numbers matter. Typically, for every ship on station there is one being refurbished after deployment and one undergoing training and work-up prior to deployment. Add to that the fact that the Navy is needed virtually everywhere--protecting the sea lanes, providing support for the wars, gathering intelligence, acting as a missile defense shield, and helping deter the likes of Iran, China, and North Korea--and one quickly comes to appreciate why a much smaller fleet, more widely dispersed, will become a strategic problem.

More than this, remember that our navy must be in all places of the world all of the time; so although it is big it is spread out. Potential enemies such as China, Iran, or Russia can concentrate their force all in one area.

And more than that, they will have land bases nearby the scene of the battles, whereby our air force planes will have to fly longer distances, and carriers are sinkable.

We've gone from 15 or so carriers to 11 and soon to 10. They're all Nimitz class which seems impressive, but again a 1070s design. They ships suffer from a lack of electricity. There are a zillion more gizmos today than there were 30+ years ago, and even a nuclear reactor can produce a finite amount of power. The first of the Gerald R Ford class won't hit the water until 2015.

But that's ok, because with the retirement of the F-14 Tomcat we've barely got enough F-18 Hornet and Super Hornets to fill the carrier decks, and the replacement F-35 Lightning II is barely out of flight testing and into production. More, there's no guarantee our dear president won't cancel or limit production of it too just like he did the F-22.

Why Does it Matter?

I probably should have put this first, but couldn't work it in. Again from TWS:

The strategic success of the United States rests on achieving three things: the defense of the homeland, including all of North America and the Caribbean Basin; safe access to and the ability to exploit the "global commons," including the seas, the skies, space, and cyberspace; and a favorable balance of power across Eurasia. For all this to work as a "system," each piece must be in working order.

In other words, we have to keep out homes safe, guard the sea lanes to ensure freedom of navigation, and ensure that no adversary gains too much power in Europe and Asia. I think those are worthy goals, and worth spending money on. Much more so than any "stimulus" that is mostly just a payoff to Democrat interest groups.