The Redhunter

The Pentagon shouldn't be immune to fiscal scrutiny, yet this Administration has targeted defense from its earliest days and has kept on squeezing. The White House last year settled with Congress on $450 billion in military budget cuts through 2021, on top of the $350 billion in weapons programs killed earlier. Defense spending next year will fall 1% in nominal terms. The Pentagon also faces another $500 billion in possible cuts starting next January under "sequestration," unless Congress steps in first.

Taken altogether, the budget could shrink by over 30% in the next decade. The Administration projects outlays at 2.7% of GDP in 2021, down from 4.5% last year (which included the cost of Iraq and Afghanistan). That would put U.S. outlays at 1940 levels--a bad year. As recently as 1986, a better year, the U.S. spent 6.2% of GDP on defense with no detrimental economic impact.
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Specific cuts will be spelled out in detail in the next Pentagon budget. The Navy, Air Force and Marines are flying old planes and waiting on the next generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jet, which comes with stealth technology. Previous Pentagon chief Bob Gates justified ending F-22 purchases by pointing to the F-35. But now the F-35 will likely be further trimmed and delayed.

Finally, some more details from the Washington Post:

The U.S. military will steadily shrink the Army and Marine Corps, reduce forces in Europe and probably make further cuts to the nation's nuclear arsenal, the Obama administration said Thursday in a preview of how it intends to reshape the armed forces after a decade of war.

The downsizing of the Pentagon, prompted by the country's dire fiscal problems, means that the military will depend more on coalitions with allies and avoid the large-scale counterinsurgency and nation-building operations that have marked the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Instead, the Pentagon will invest more heavily in Special Operations Forces, which have a smaller footprint and require less money than conventional units, as well as drone aircraft and cybersecurity, defense officials said. The military will also shift its focus to Asia to counter China's rising influence and North Korea's unpredictability. Despite the end of the Iraq war, administration officials said they would keep a large presence in the Middle East, where tensions with Iran are worsening.

Budgetary Implications

My general take on this is that I am ok with defense cuts if, and only if, they are coupled with cuts in domenstic spending. The reason is that our budgetary problems are not the result of military spending but the growth of entitlement programs such as Medicare. Until we tackle them we will continue in our downward spiral.

But instead, it seems obvious that the president is only cutting defense so he can continue spending like wild on domestic programs. And neither cutting defense or raising taxes on the wealthy is going to eliminate or even have a serious impact on our huge annual deficits.

The Good News

The good news is that the Navy and Air Force get off light, with the Army and Marine Corps absorbing most of the cuts. Given that the threats from China and Iran are primarily naval ones, there is some logic to this.

Drafting a budget always means setting priorities. Looking around the globe, the threats are mostly from nations that will challenge us in the air or on the water. They are somewhat tied together, but not entirely.

Naval threats come from Iran and China. Iran wants to control access to oil exports that are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. China wants hegemony in the southwestern Pacific. The American economy, to say nothing of the post-WWII world system, depends on freedom of the seas as guaranteed by democratic nations.

These threats can be countered by naval, air, and anti-missile assets, as well a a focus on cyberwarfare. It is good that the cuts will not (immediately, at least) come in these areas. At least in the short run, then, we should be able to adequately meet the threat.

The Bad News

The bad news is twofold. One, more cuts are likely coming, and two this absolutely sends the wrong signal to our potential enemies.

Worse, all this comes only a few days after Iran threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz. In their mind, the announcement is a sure sign of weakness, a sign that we are in decline. This, then, increases the chance of a war, which is exactly what we don't want.

Further, although we can meet our obligations now, what happens in 10 or 15 years? The oldest Nimitz-class carrier is nearing 40 years of age, and the Enterprise 52. Will we continue to build the new Ford class in adequate numbers? Other systems, like the Perry-class frigates are getting old, to say nothing of the "teen series" of aircraft (F-15, F-16, and F-18). Will Obama commit to building enough Burke-class destroyers and F-35 fighters to replace them?

For that matter, what about missile defense? Liberals like to poo-hoo these systems as unreliable. But negotiations and diplomacy have not at all stopped the Chinese, Iranians, or North Koreans from arming themselves with a variety of short and medium range missiles that could rain down destruction on U.S. bases over a thousand miles away from their respective homelands. Note that most of these missiles are armed with conventional warheads; it's like of like World War II but with missiles rather than B-17s.

Refocusing to the Asia-Pacific Region

Much of the goal behind the new strategy is a refocusing to the Asia-Pacific region. This is warranted in that China and North Korea are obvious threats. No mention is made of focusing on the Middle East, to which I say "good luck." That region of the world has a way of making us focus on it whether we like it or not.

Next Up: An examination of the Defense Strategic Guidance document